国际钨精矿长期价格规律及其对战略经营的启示

利用1900-2010年钨精矿现价数据,扣除美元贬值后计算出对应的不变价格并将之分解为趋势、周期、冲击和随机等部分。钨精矿不变价格的主要结构性规律是,1个长周期内嵌2个政治周期,每个政治周期由低谷期和高台期组成,1个高台期内含1次冲高和3个逐步增强的冲击波,高台期伴随1次冲高而形成、伴随第3个冲击波结束而进入低谷期。冲击的形成与世界重大事件相关,从时序上看,价格波动总体趋势是节拍延长、波幅加大。利用这些规律可推知,形成于2004年的高台期将于2049年结束,并仿真预测了期间的不变价格以及与之对应的现价。在这个时期,中国钨业战略经营原则是减少出口、推升钨精矿价格,以获取更大的资源利益。

Long Term Price Regulation of International Tungsten Concentrate and its Significance to Tungsten Strategic Management

Based on the price data of tungsten concentrate from 1900 to 2010,the relevant constant prices are worked out by deducting the dollar devaluation and decomposed for trend,cycle,impact and random parts.The major structural rule of the constant prices is,a long cycle embedded two political cycles,each political cycle by troughs and tower,a tower of a high-pricing and three gradually increases shock wave,a tower formed with high-pricing,and with the third shock wave end into the next trough.Looking from time s...