核设备鉴定试验中仪控系统可靠性预测

核设备鉴定试验数字化仪控系统的可靠性直接决定着核设备鉴定试验的成败。重点介绍、分析了核设备鉴定试验中仪控系统结构的组成及其自身特点,并给出了仪控单元的定义。结合仪控单元自身特点,给出了影响可靠性的关键因素。同时,在对仪控单元分析的基础上,给出了表征仪控系统可靠性的故障率。利用反向传播(BP)神经网络技术,建立核设备鉴定仪控系统可靠性预测模型,并结合仪控系统历史数据,对其可靠性进行预测分析,得到了有效的预测结果,进一步提高了核设备鉴定仪控系统的可靠性。给出了日常维护核设备鉴定试验仪控系统的措施和建议。该预测方法同样可以运用到化工、石油、电力等领域的相关设备鉴定行业。

Reliability Prediction of Instrument and Control System in Nuclear Equipment Appraisal Experiment

The reliability of digital instrument control system for nuclear equipment appraisal test directly determines the success or failure of nuclear equipment appraisal test.This paper introduces and analyses the composition and characteristics of the instrument control system in the nuclear equipment appraisal test,and the definition of instrument control system is given.In the mean time,combined with the characteristics of the instrument control unit,the key factors affecting reliability are given.Based on the analysis of the instrument control unit,the failure rate characterizing the reliability of the instrument control system is given.Then the reliability prediction model of nuclear equipment appraisal instrument control system is established by using back propagation(BP)neural network technology,and its reliability is predicted and analyzed with historical data of instrument control system.The effective prediction results are obtained,which further improves the reliability of nuclear equipment appraisal.The measures and suggestions for daily maintenance of the instrument control system in the nuclear equipment appraisal test are given.The forecasting method can also be applied to the equipment appraisal in chemical,petroleum,electric power and other fields.