| 电力系统年最大负荷概率预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 卫志农,滕俊,王丹,唐智育,何南强,孟远景,程鹏.电力系统年最大负荷概率预测[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2004,16(6):64-67. |
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| 作者姓名： | 卫志农 滕俊 王丹 唐智育 何南强 孟远景 程鹏 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学电气工程学院,南京,210098;河南省电力公司,郑州,450052 |
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| 摘 要： | 概率预测已经在气象、地震预测等领域中成功应用.提出将概率预测的方法用于负荷预测领域.在深入研究年最大负荷与温度关系的基础上建立了概率预测模型,模型有较高的预测精度,并已形成实用化应用软件,软件已在河南省正式使用,使用效果好.
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| 关 键 词： | 年最大负荷 概率预测 灰色预测 气候因素 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-8930(2004)06-0064-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年10月22 |
Probabilistic Forecasting for Annual Peak Load of Power Systems |
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| WEI Zhi-nong,TENG Jun,WANG Dan,TANG Zhi-yu,HE Nan-qiang,MENG Yuan-jing,CHENG Peng.Probabilistic Forecasting for Annual Peak Load of Power Systems[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2004,16(6):64-67. |
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| Authors: | WEI Zhi-nong TENG Jun WANG Dan TANG Zhi-yu HE Nan-qiang MENG Yuan-jing CHENG Peng |
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| Affiliation: | WEI Zhi-nong1,TENG Jun1,WANG Dan1,TANG Zhi-yu2,HE Nan-qiang2,MENG Yuan-jing2,CHENG Peng2 |
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| Abstract: | Probabilistic forecast has been successfully applied to weather and earthquake f orecast, so it also can be applied to load forecast. This paper thoroughly resea rches the effect of air temperature on annual peak load,and on the basis of whic h, the probabilistic forecasting model of annual peak load is established. The m odel has high precision.A practical software has been formed and applied to Hena n Power System, where the forecasting effect is good. |
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| Keywords: | annual peak load probabilistic forecasting grey forecasting climate factor |
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