中国煤层气地面井中长期生产规模的情景预测

采用情景分析这一基本方法分析了影响煤层气产业发展的情景因素,认为中国煤层气产业发展规模呈国家需求与技术进步双要素单向增长趋势,存在较低规模、基准规模、跨越规模3类可能的基本情景。根据中国煤层气产业发展现状并参考美国煤层气产业发展历史,进一步筛选出单井产量、钻井总数、投产井比例3个关键要素,对今后20年期间中国煤层气地面井产量进行了情景设计和模拟分析。研究认为,在技术较大进步情景下,未来4个五年计划末期的全国地面井产量规模可能分别为113×10⁸m³、252×10⁸m³、452×10⁸m³和624×10⁸m³。这种情景的实现,需要在现有基础上进一步强化国家产业政策的扶持,提高煤层气井增产技术进步的速度,加大煤层气基地产能建设的力度。

Scenario predication for the mid-term and long-term coalbed methane production scale of surface drilling wells in China

Scenario factors influencing the development of the coalbed methane (CBM) industry in China were analyzed using a basic method of scenario analysis and a unidirectional growth trend of the dual elements (national demand and technical progress) for the China’s CBM industry scale was suggested, which has three possible basic scenarios, namely the junior scale, benchmarker scale and leaping scale. By taking the China's CBM industry status into account and making reference to the U.S. CBM industry history, we further screened three key elements including the individual well production, total well number and brought-in well proportion, designed and simulated production scenarios of the nationwide CBM surface wells in the next 20 years. It was suggested that by the ends of the next four five-year plans, the CBM production scale of the nationwide surface wells will likely reach to 11.3 billion, 25.2 billion, 45.2 billion and 62.4 billion cubic meters, respectively. The realization of such scenarios relies on strengthening the support of national industrial policies, speeding up the progress of CBM well production technologies and increasing the capacity building speed on the CBM production basis.