技术进步对我国油气工业上游发展贡献的测度分析

技术进步是经济增长的重要因素,本文采用数据包络分析(DataEnvelopmentAnalysis,DEA)方法,从纵向和横向上定量测量了我国15个主要油气生产省、区的技术有效值、技术进步率,综合分析和归纳了我国油气工业上游发展中技术进步的一些特点。计算结果表明,我国主要油气生产省、区的技术有效值总体不高,多数省区油气工业上游的技术有效值趋于下降。其中1993～1999年,我国油气工业上游的技术进步率为10%,但平均技术进步率趋于缓慢下降。分析认为,产生这些现象的原因应归结于油气工业上游先期投入大,勘探和开发周期长,不确定性高等特点。

DEA of Technological Progresses Contributed to the Development of China Petroleum & Gas Upstream Industries

Technological progress is an important element for the economy growth. The effective value of technology and the speed of technological progress of 15 provinces in China are estimated by using the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). It analyzes and discusses some basic characteristics of technical changes in the petroleum and gas industries. The results of calculation show that the overall technical effective value is not at high level in key provincial and regional oil and gas productions. The technical effective values of upstream of oil and gas industry in most provinces are in trend of decrease from 1993 to 1999. During this period, the average rate of technological progress is 10% in upstream of oil and gas industry, but it is tending towards declining. The analysis considers that this phenomenon is mainly caused by some special characteristics of the upstream of petroleum and gas industries, such as large up front investment, longer cycle of oil and gas exploration and higher uncertainty, etc.