| 现役大坝泄洪能力风险率的MC分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 桂发亮,罗冬兰,刘芹,兰盈盈,傅绍娟. 现役大坝泄洪能力风险率的MC分析[J]. 南昌水专学报, 2007, 26(6): 29-31 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 桂发亮 罗冬兰 刘芹 兰盈盈 傅绍娟 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 南昌工程学院,水利工程系,江西,南昌,330099;新干县黄泥埠水库管理处,江西,吉安,331306 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 江西省教育厅科技计划项目资助(赣教技字[2006]256号) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 在水工水力学模型研究成果基础上,采用MC法对现役大坝泄洪能力风险率做进一步探讨,研究表明:(1)水力的不确定性对大坝防洪安全确实存在影响,但风险值较小;(2)国内绝大多数大中型现役坝的水力风险几近为0,设计偏于保守.由此可见,确定基于风险分析的大坝防洪安全标准和设计洪水标准,并据此来确定大坝坝顶高程,是非常必要的.
|
| 关 键 词： | 现役大坝 泄洪能力 风险率 MC方法 水力风险 |
| 文章编号： | 1674-0076（2007）06-0029-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-07-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-07-03 |
MC analysis of the hydraulic risk of existing dam |
| |
| GUI Fa-liang,LUO Dong-lan,LIU Qin,LAN Ying-ying,FU Shao-juan. MC analysis of the hydraulic risk of existing dam[J]. Journal of Nanchang College of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power, 2007, 26(6): 29-31 |
| |
| Authors: | GUI Fa-liang LUO Dong-lan LIU Qin LAN Ying-ying FU Shao-juan |
| |
| Abstract: | This article discusses the hydraulic risk rate of the existing dam based on the achievement of hydraulic model test.The result indicates:(1)that hydraulic uncentainty affects flood-control safety,but its risk is weak;(2)the design values of the spillway overweigh dam safety so that most of existing dams have no hydraulic risk.Thus it is essential that the height of the top dam be determined according to the design standard for flood prevention and safety of dam based on the risk analysis. |
| |
| Keywords: | the existing dam flood discharge capacity risk rate MC method hydraulic risk |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
