| 酸化井产油量时间序列的混沌特征识别 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐钢,刘承杰,张广政,刘军. 酸化井产油量时间序列的混沌特征识别[J]. 新疆石油地质, 2011, 32(6) |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐钢 刘承杰 张广政 刘军 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国石化胜利油田有限责任公司采油工艺研究院,山东东营257000／中国石化胜利油田有限责任公司博士后科研工作站,山东东营257000
2. 中国石化胜利油田有限责任公司采油工艺研究院,山东东营,257000 |
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| 摘 要： | 现有的油气井产量预测方法以传统技术经济预测的惯性原理为基础。混沌理论的产生与发展对这种预测原理提出了挑战。目前有关酸化井产量变化混沌特征识别与预测的相关研究还鲜有公开报道。采用相空间重构和关联维数提取技术,对西部某油田一油井酸化后60 d的产油量时间序列研究发现,此井产油量时间序列的饱和嵌入维数和对应的吸引子维数分别为11和2.64,由此说明该井酸化后的生产系统动态演化规律为高维空间中的奇异吸引子,因而产油量变化表现出混沌特征;并且说明影响该井产油量变化的基本变量为3～11个。从而为单井生产系统动力学模型的建立,特别是人工神经网络预测模型的输入层节点数量的确定提供了定量的参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 产油量 酸化 混沌 关联维数 时间序列 |
Chaos Identification of Time Series of Acidized Well Oil Production Rate |
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| TANG Ganga,b,LIU Cheng-jiea,ZHANG Guang-zhenga,LIU Juna. Chaos Identification of Time Series of Acidized Well Oil Production Rate[J]. Xinjiang Petroleum Geology, 2011, 32(6) |
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| Authors: | TANG Ganga b LIU Cheng-jiea ZHANG Guang-zhenga LIU Juna |
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| Affiliation: | TANG Ganga,b,LIU Cheng-jiea,ZHANG Guang-zhenga,LIU Juna (Shengli Oilfield Company Ltd.,Sinopec,a.Research Institute of Oil Production Technology,b.Post-Doctoral Research Center,Dongying,Shandong 257000,China) |
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| Abstract: | Well production rate is commonly predicted based on the permanence principle of traditional technical economy prediction.However,such a prediction principle has been challenged by the emergence and development of chaos theory.Unfortunately,there is little work has been done on the chaos identification and prediction of acidized well production rate.This paper presents techniques of phase space reconstruction and correlation dimension extraction,by which the 60-day time series of oil production rate from an ... |
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| Keywords: | oil production rate acidizing chaos correlation dimension time series |
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