| 基于小波分析的BP网络预测模型及其在年径流预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐廷兵,马光文,黄炜斌,邢〓冰.基于小波分析的BP网络预测模型及其在年径流预测中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2012,30(2):17-19. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐廷兵 马光文 黄炜斌 邢〓冰 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川大学水电学院,四川成都,610065 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划基金资助项目(2008BAB29B09);美国能源基金会基金资助项目(G-0610-08581) |
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| 摘 要： | 鉴于小波变换序列中尺度系数系列和小波系数系列变化特征存在较大差异,提出了一种新的小波分析与BP网络结合方式,即建立两个BP网络分别对两类系数系列进行预测,再对各小波变换系数的预测值进行小波重构,获得原序列的预测值。将该模型应用于二滩电站入库年径流量预测,结果表明该模型预测精度高,可为水电站提供可靠的入库年径流预测结果。
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| 关 键 词： | 小波分析 BP网络 预测模型 径流预测 |
BP Network Prediction Model and Its Application in Annual Runoff Forecasting Based on Wavelet Analysis |
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| XU Tingbing,MA Guangwen,HUANG Weibin and XING Bing.BP Network Prediction Model and Its Application in Annual Runoff Forecasting Based on Wavelet Analysis[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2012,30(2):17-19. |
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| Authors: | XU Tingbing MA Guangwen HUANG Weibin and XING Bing |
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| Affiliation: | School of Hydroelectric Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China |
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| Abstract: | In view of the difference between scale coefficient series and wavelet coefficient series, a new way of combination of wavelet analysis and BP network is proposed in this paper. Two BP networks are established to predict two types of coefficient series. And then the predicted value of wavelet coefficients is reconstructed to obtain the predicted value of the original sequence. Finally, the model is applied to forecast annual runoff of a hydropower station. The results show that the model has high prediction accuracy, which can provide reliable annual runoff for hydropower station. |
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| Keywords: | wavelet analysis BP network prediction model runoff forecasting |
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