| 防洪预报调度方式综合特性风险率计算方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刁艳芳,王本德,董洁,王刚.防洪预报调度方式综合特性风险率计算方法研究[J].水力发电,2011,37(10). |
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| 作者姓名： | 刁艳芳 王本德 董洁 王刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 山东农业大学水利土木工程学院,山东泰安,271018
2. 大连理工大学建设工程学部,辽宁大连,116023 |
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| 摘 要： | 水库防洪预报调度中的多种不确定性因素是风险产生的根本原因。分析水库防洪预报调度中不确定性因素的随机性、模糊性及灰色性,并在已有的防洪预报调度方式随机风险率计算方法的基础上,提出了随机-模糊、随机-灰色及综合特性风险率的计算方法,研究了水库实施防洪预报调度方式相对于常规调度方式水库风险率的变化。桓仁水库的应用研究表明,防洪预报调度方式综合特性风险率计算方法是可行的,相对于常规调度方式并未增加水库的防洪风险。
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| 关 键 词： | 防洪预报调度方式 风险率 随机性 模糊性 灰色性 |
Integrated Features Risk Rate Method for Flood Control Forecast Operation Mode |
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| Diao Yanfang,Wang Bende,Dong Jie,Wang Gang.Integrated Features Risk Rate Method for Flood Control Forecast Operation Mode[J].Water Power,2011,37(10). |
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| Authors: | Diao Yanfang Wang Bende Dong Jie Wang Gang |
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| Affiliation: | Diao Yanfang1,Wang Bende2,Dong Jie1,Wang Gang1(1.School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Shandong Agricultural University,Taian 271018,Shangdong,China,2.Faculty of Infrastructure Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116023,Liaoning,China) |
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| Abstract: | A variety of uncertainties in reservoir flood control forecast operation is the primary cause of risk.The stochastic character,fuzzy character and grey character of the uncertainties are analyzed,and on the basis of the stochastic risk rate method,the stochastic-fuzzy risk rate method,stochastic-grey risk rate method and integrated features risk rate method are proposed to discuss the different risk rates between the flood control forecast operation mode and the flood control operation mode.The research on ... |
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| Keywords: | flood control forecast operation mode risk rate stochastic character fuzzy character grey character |
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