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| 基于主成分的大坝监测资料时变预测模型 | |
| 引用本文： | 梅一韬,许后磊,王锋,吴邦彬,万陆林. 基于主成分的大坝监测资料时变预测模型[J]. 水力发电, 2011, 37(10) |
| 作者姓名： | 梅一韬 许后磊 王锋 吴邦彬 万陆林 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098;河海大学水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心,江苏南京210098;河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098 2. 中国水电顾问集团昆明勘测设计研究院,云南昆明,650051 3. 国家电力监管委员会大坝安全监察中心,浙江杭州,310014 4. 上海市青浦区防汛指挥部办公室,上海,201700 |
| 摘 要： | 由于内外各种因素的影响,大坝安全监控参数会随时间而变化,而常规监控模型常常采用非时变的参数。基于主成分分析,利用缩减后的主成分荷载建立了时变预测模型。实例表明,该模型可以减少计算时间,有效削弱因子多重相关性的影响,提高大坝监测效应量的预测水平。 |
| 关 键 词： | 大坝安全监控 数学模型 主成分分析 时变参数 |
Time-varying Prediction Model of Dam Monitoring Data Based on Principal Component Analysis |
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| Mei Yitao,Xu Houlei,Wang Feng,Wu Bangbin,Wan Lulin. Time-varying Prediction Model of Dam Monitoring Data Based on Principal Component Analysis[J]. Water Power, 2011, 37(10) | |
| Authors: | Mei Yitao Xu Houlei Wang Feng Wu Bangbin Wan Lulin |
| Affiliation: | Mei Yitao1,2,3,Xu Houlei4,Wang Feng5,Wu Bangbin1,Wan Lulin6(1.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu,China,2.National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering Safety,3.College of Water Conservancy & Hydropower Engineering,4.HydroChina Kunming Engineering Corporation,Kunming 650051,Yunnan,Chin... |
| Abstract: | As influenced by many internal and external factors,the dam safety monitoring parameters will change over time,and the time-invariant parameters are often used in conventional monitoring models.Based on principal component analysis,a time-varying prediction model is set up by using reduced principal component loads.The case studies show that the model can save computational time,weaken multi-correlativity among factors and improve the effect size prediction of dam monitoring. |
| Keywords: | dam safety monitoring mathematical model principal component analysis time-varying parameter |
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