| 北京市平谷平原地下水水位动态统计预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐强,束龙仓,杨丹,刘晋,杨桂莲. 北京市平谷平原地下水水位动态统计预测模型[J]. 水电能源科学, 2009, 27(5) |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐强 束龙仓 杨丹 刘晋 杨桂莲 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 河海大学,水文水资源学院,江苏,南京,210098
2. 水利部,地下水监测中心,北京,100053 |
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| 基金项目： | 水利部公益性行业科研专项基金资助项目(200801020) |
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| 摘 要： | 通过分析北京平谷平原水文地质条件、地下水水位动态特征和水位动态的影响因素,分别采用多元线性回归模型、季节分解模型对山前平原和中部平原建模分析,并预测了平谷地下水水位动态。结果表明,在现有条件下山前平原的水位变化不明显,中部平原水位下降较多。
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| 关 键 词： | 平谷 地下水水位预测 影响因素 多元线性回归模型 季节分解模型 |
Model on Groundwater Level Dynamic Statistical in Pinggu Plain of Beijing |
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| XU Qiang SHU Longcang YANG Dan LIU Jin YANG Guilian. Model on Groundwater Level Dynamic Statistical in Pinggu Plain of Beijing[J]. International Journal Hydroelectric Energy, 2009, 27(5) |
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| Authors: | XU Qiang SHU Longcang YANG Dan LIU Jin YANG Guilian |
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| Affiliation: | 1.College of Hydrology and Water Resources;Hohai University;Nanjing 210098;China;2.Ministry of Water Resources;Underground Water Monitoring Center;Beijing 100053;China |
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| Abstract: | Pinggu is divided into piedmont plain and median plain according to its hydro-geological condition,groundwater dynamic characteristic and effect factors.There is a good relationship between the piedmont plain current month groundwater level and current month precipitation and exploitation quantity,so the multi-linear model can be used.But this relationship is not strong in median plain,and the R2 is less than 0.8.So the groundwater level prediction of median plain cannot use multi-linear model.However,the s... |
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| Keywords: | groundwater level prediction effect factors multi-linear regression model seasonal decomposition model |
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