Possibilities and problems with the use of models as a communication tool in water resource management |
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Authors: | Johanna Alkan Olsson Lotta Andersson |
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Affiliation: | 1.Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies, (LUCSUS),Lund,Sweden;2.Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI),Norrk?ping,Sweden |
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Abstract: | Politicians and policy-makers, as well as modellers, often nurses an expectation that model derived results is an objective
source of information that can be used to support decisions. However, several prerequisites have to be dealt with in order
to ensure that models can be used as legitimate and efficient tools in water resource management. Based on empirical material
from recent studies on the use of models in stakeholder dialogues, mainly focusing on catchment nutrient transport, two central
problems are identified: (a) Models are laden with choices and thus depend on assumptions and priorities of modellers. (b)
There are several factors that influence ability and willingness of stakeholders (as information recovers) to criticize or
accept results of the modelling exercise. Recognized factors likely to influence stakeholders' acceptance of model derived
results include issues at stake, stakeholders' ability to criticize model derived information, and their trust in the institutions
that have developed or applied the used models. Identified prerequisites for successful use of models in integrated water
resource management include: consideration of user relevance, awareness of and preparedness to handle constraints linked to
communication of model-based results, transparency of used models and data and of involved uncertainties, mutual respect between
experts and stakeholders and between involved stakeholder groups, a robust institutional network, and sufficient time for
dialogues. Development and use of strategies for participatory modelling, based on a continuous dialogue between experts and
stakeholders is recommended as a way to facilitate that the prerequisites for a successful use of models in water resource
management are fulfilled. |
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Keywords: | Participatory modelling Catchment models Scenarios Water management Communication Understanding of science |
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