基于模糊概率齐次Semi-Markov过程的核动力系统可靠性分析

研究了将模糊集合理论与齐次Semi-Markov过程相结合的方法对清晰事件 模糊概率系统进行可靠性分析。给出三角形模糊数算法和将核动力系统设备可靠性数据源通用数据进行三角形模糊化处理的方法，推导系统状态概率计算的模糊概率齐次Semi-Markov过程算法模型，并给出模糊核矩阵的计算方法。实例研究表明，该方法能够基于已有的通用数据进行系统失效概率的不确定性分析，从而弥补仅采用点估计值所得分析结果的不完备性。

Fuzzy Probabilistic Homogeneous Semi-Markov Process for Nuclear Power System Reliability

The reliability analysis of certainty event fuzzy probability system was obtained by the combination method of the fuzzy set theory and homogeneous Semi-Markov process. The mathematical algorithm of triangular fuzzy number was defined, and an approach was also presented to convert the component failure probability value to a triangular fuzzy number from reliability database of nuclear power components, and fuzzy probability homogeneous Semi-Markov arithmetic model was derived to calculate system state probability. The arithmetic of the fuzzy kernel matrix was also presented. The results by an actual example show that this method can do uncertainty analysis based on the general data, so it can make up the imperfection of the analysis results obtained by using the point estimate value only.