CITY SIZE,BIRTHRATES, AND DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA

ABSTRACT: This paper uses recently published aggregate data to examine the relationship among cities, birthrates, and development in the People's Republic of China. Postrevolutionary China has long attempted to limit birthrates, arguing that population control will enhance economic development and physical quality of life. The one child policy and other population control programs have been concentrated mainly in urban areas, which have lower absolute birthrates than nonurban areas. Despite this fact, multivariate statistical analysis shows that urban areas do not have lower birthrates after controlling for secondary education, industrial employment, and several other variables. By contrast, most cities do have higher levels of economic development and physical quality of life, even after controlling for numerous indicators. These findings (1) suggest that innovative public policies have influenced urban China and (2) support several arguments associated with modernization and demographic transition theories.