一种基于贝叶斯网络的电力系统可靠性评估新方法

贝叶斯网络能够灵活地表示不确定性信息，并能进行不确定性推理。运用贝叶斯网络方法进行电力系统可靠性评估，不但能计算出电力系统的可靠性指标，而又能方便地给出每个部件或几个部件对系统整体可靠性的影响大小，从而克服了电力系统传统可靠性评估方法的不足。文中提出了结合故障树和最小路集来建立贝叶斯网络的新方法，并用两个例子阐述了用贝叶斯网络方法进行电力系统可靠性评估的有效性和优越性。

A NEW METHOD FOR RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF POWER SYSTEM BASED ON BAYESIAN NETWORKS

This paper presents the application of Bayesian networks to the reliability assessment of power system. Bayesian networks can flexibly make expression and inference of uncertain information. Bayesian networks permit not only computing the reliability indices of a power system but also presenting the effect of each component or some components on the system reliability. A new method to construct Bayesian networks with the ideology of fault tree and minimal path sets are introduced in this paper. Thus the shortcomings of traditional reliability assessment methods are overcomed. The results of two examples prove the validity and superiority of the method in the application of the reliability assessment of power system.