递推最小二乘法电力系统短期负荷预报

本文用最小二乘递推算法辨识自回归模型和自回归动平均模型,编制了电力系统短期在线负荷予报程序。通过对某电力系统负荷予报的实际计算,结果表明误差在工程允许范围之内。本方法的特点是节省计算机存储容量、计算速度快,并能较好地克服对具有非平稳随机过程特性的电力负荷进行予报的困难。

Recursive Least-Square Method for Short-term Load Forecasting of Power System

This paper uses the recursion algorithm of the least-square method to identify an autoregression model and an autoregression moving average model. On-Line computer program of short-term load forecasting of power system is presented. The practical copmputation results for the load forecasting of the power system indicate that crrors are wlthin the engineering allowance. The characteristics of this method are to economize the computer storage capacity, to speed up the computation and to grea tly ovcrcome the forecasting difficulty for the characteristic of the nonstationary random process of power system load.