水资源需求预测研究方法概述

水资源对我国国家安全和经济发展具有至关重要的作用。随着人口增加和环境污染等问题凸显,对水资源实施科学合理的保护和规划是维持水资源可持续发展的重要战略。水资源的中长期预测一直是国内外研究的热点问题。本文对水资源需求预测方法进行了系统的分析,将水资源的预测方法分为了整体预测方法和部门预测方法两大类。其中整体预测方法将水资源需求量作为一个整体进行预测,常用方法包括灰色关联、回归分析和神经网络等;部门预测方法则从农业、工业、生活和生态四个方面着手进行水资源需求预测。同时,本文对目前水资源需求预测方法的优缺点进行了分析,并且指出了水资源需求预测方法的发展方向,为我国水资源中长期需求预测提供了理论支撑。

Review of prediction methods on water resource demand

Water resource is of significant importance to the national security and economic development. With the increasing population and environmental pollution, reasonable protection and planning are the key strategy to keep the sustainable development of national water resources. Long-term water demand prediction is always the hot spot at home and abroad. In this paper, the authors have systematically analyzed the prediction methods about water resources, and all these methods have been divided into two groups, the whole method and the section method. The water demand will be regarded as a whole part in the whole method, and grey prediction, regression analysis and artificial neutral network. While the section method begins with four subsections, which are agriculture, industry, resident and ecosystem. Besides, the disadvantages of these methods are analyzed and the future trends in the water demand prediction are also summarized in this research, which can be a theoretical support for national water demand prediction.