基于“S”形模型的全球铜需求分析

本文以全球主要国家经济发展与铜资源消费的历史数据为基础,标定了铜需求"S"形轨迹的三个关键点,分三类建立了典型国家人均铜资源消费与人均GDP的非线性数学模型。结合对全球不同经济发展程度国家分类,预测了全球及主要国家、区域铜资源需求趋势。未来全球铜资源需求仍将持续增长,2030年全球总需求量将达到3 994万t,长期来看,中国仍将是全球铜资源需求的主体,但占比将不断下降。以印度、东盟等为代表的发展中国家将成为全球铜资源需求的主要拉动者。

Global copper demand analysis based on the S-shaped model

Based on historical data on economic development and copper consumption by key economies worldwide, this paper marks three critical points on S-shaped trajectories that depict copper demand and establishes non-linear mathematical models based on the copper consumption per capita of three types of typical countries and their GDP per capita. By combining countries with different levels of development worldwide, we are able to project copper demand trends at the global, national, and regional levels. Global demand for copper will continue to rise in the future, hitting 39.94 million tons in 2030. In the long run, it appears that China will remain the main consumer of copper globally, but its share of global consumption will slide continuously. Developing countries, notably India and countries belonging to the ASEAN, will become the main drivers of global copper demand.