油价回升后国际石油公司战略动向

过去几年持续的油价下跌给石油公司带来了深刻的影响。投资减少导致增长乏力,收入降低导致现金流吃紧。随着2017年下半年以来的油价回升,上游市场开始回暖,勘探开发活动逐渐恢复。本文从资产负债率、自由现金流、投资回报率、资产剥离、收并购行为、储量替代率、低碳转型7个方面分析了油价回升以后国际石油公司的业绩表现和战略动向,为能源投资和我国石油公司生产经营决策提供参考。研究发现,虽然油价回升,但石油公司资产负债率仍然偏高,抑制短期投资支出;投资回报率依然疲弱,但复苏迹象显现;自由现金流五年来首次出现少量盈余;国际石油公司出售资产放缓,国家石油公司则继续资产剥离计划;收并购市场复苏,北美资产价格下降;储量替代率显著提高,储量获得成本下降。总体而言,国际石油公司走出低油价带来的困境仍需时日。

Operational performance and strategy adjustment of oil companies after oil price recovery

The continuous drop in oil prices over the past few years has had a profound impact on oil companies. Less investment leads to sluggish growth, and lower revenues lead to tight cash flow. With the recovery of oil prices since the second half of 2017, the upstream market began to recover, and exploration and development activities gradually added. This paper analyzes the performance and strategic adjustment of international oil companies after oil price recovery based on following indicators, including asset-liability ratio, free cash flow, return on capital employed, M A value, reserves replacement ratio and low-carbon transformation so as to provide reference for energy investment and operation decisions of Chinese oil companies. The study found that although the oil price has recovered, the asset-liability ratio of oil companies was still high, which inhibited short-term investment spending. Investment returns remain weak, but signs of recovery are emerging. The free cash flow becomes to be positive after 5 years of negative. Divestment of oil and gas assets of international oil companies slowed down while national owned oil companies continue to sell assets. Merger and acquisition market recovery, the price of North American asset prices fell. The reserve replacement ratio was significantly increased and the cost of reserve acquisition was decreased. Overall, it will take time for international oil companies to emerge from the plight of low oil prices.