考虑新能源出力不确定性的风-光-柴-储系统调度策略

文章以风-光-柴-储系统为研究对象,为了研究新能源出力不确定性对该系统的影响,提出了一种新能源出力复合预测模型。为提高风-光-柴-储系统运行的经济性、环保性和安全性,提出了考虑新能源出力不确定性的风-光-柴-储系统调度模型,并采用了带有Monte Carlo模拟的遗传算法对模型进行求解。文章采用了负荷缺失率(Load Loss Rate, LLR)和置信概率对系统的安全性进行评价,并分析了其对系统调度结果的影响。仿真结果表明,该文所提出的考虑新能源出力不确定性的风-光-柴-储系统调度模型,可以降低新能源出力不确定性对系统的影响,且该方法可以有效平衡系统的经济性和安全性。

Dispatch of Wind-Solar-Diesel-Battery Hybrid Power Generation System Considering Renewable Energy Uncertainty

With the increase of the proportion of renewable energy connected to the grid, effectively coordinating renewable energy connected to the grid and the flexibility of thermal power units has become a new challenge for power system. In this paper, a total cost calculation model which considered the cost of power generation, pollutant treatment and renewable energy waste power is proposed, and a wind power-photovoltaic-hydropower- thermal power combined optimal dispatching model is established. This paper proposes a strategy, and this strategy reduces the power rejection rate of renewable energy through the dispatching method of multi-energy joint operation and coordination with energy storage devices. In this paper, the simulation calculation of the combined system of wind power-photovoltaic-thermal power- hydropower, and wind power-photovoltaic-thermal power-hydropower-pumped storage on four typical days in spring, summer, autumn, winter shows that pumped storage can effectively reduce the power rejection rate of new energy, reduce the system operation cost, effectively stabilize the fluctuation of power supply power, and reduce the influence of seasonal changes on the system.