基于非时序模型的新能源消纳能力评估方法

随着风电和光伏装机容量的快速增长，弃风和弃光问题日益突出，开展新能源消纳能力研究，建立消纳能力量化评估体系对电网调度的运行和控制工作有着重要的意义。文中提出了一种基于非时序分析模型的新能源消纳能力量化评估方法。该方法基于概率分析理论，首先利用阿基米德Copula函数构建了新能源理论出力的概率分布，通过负荷特性构建了系统新能源消纳空间的概率分布，进而得到了系统新能源弃电功率的概率分布。然后，再通过新能源弃电功率的概率分布计算得到新能源弃电率，评估系统的新能源消纳能力。最后，基于EPRI 36机组系统验证了所提方法的正确性和有效性，并分析了负荷、新能源装机容量、常规机组调峰率以及备用水平对弃电率的影响。

Assessment Method of Accommodation Capacity of Renewable Energy Based on Non-time-series Model

With the rapid growth of installed capacity of wind and solar power, the problem of wind and solar power curtailment has become increasingly prominent. It is of great significance to conduct the research on the accommodation capacity of renewable energy and establish the quantitative evaluation system of accommodation capacity for operation and control of grid dispatching. An assessment method of accommodation capacity of renewable energy based on non-time-series model is presented in this paper. Firstly, the probability distribution of theoretical output of renewable energy is obtained based on Archimedes Copula function. The probability distribution of accommodation space of renewable energy in the system is built based on load characteristics, and the probability distribution of electric power curtailment is obtained. Then, the rate of electric power curtailment of renewable energy is calculated according to the probability distribution of electric power curtailment of renewable energy, which evaluates the accommodation capacity of renewable energy in the system. Finally, the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified by EPRI 36-unit system and the effects of load, installed capacity of renewable energy, peak regulating rate of conventional units and backup level on the renewable energy curtailment ratio are analyzed.