Kriging响应面代理模型在有限元模型确认中的应用

结合Kriging理论，实现Kriging响应面代理模型在有限元模型确认过程中响应预测的应用。讨论模型验证与确认的基本思想，初步提出有限元模型确认流程；以Garteur benchmark飞机结构瞬态响应仿真为例，建立加速度响应最大值Kriging响应面，通过蒙特卡洛方法，实现有限元模型参数不确定性正向传递；采用核密度估计建立加速度响应最大值概率分布，计算响应量置信区间上下限。结果表明，Kriging响应面能准确对有限元模型响应进行预测，可为有限元模型确认过程提供很大便利。

Application of Kriging Response Surface In Finite Element Model Validation

Based on the theory of Kriging, a kind of surrogate model called Kriging response surface is established during the process of model validation for the prediction of response. Primarily, the procedure of model validation is put forward according to the discussion about model verification and validation. Taking the transient response analysis for Garteur benchmark as an example, Kriging response surface for the maximum value of acceleration is established and Monte Carol method is used in order to achieve the positive transfer of uncertainty from model parameters. Also, Kernel density estimation is available to get the probability distribution of the maximum value of acceleration，while the upper bound and lower bound for the response is computed. It is demonstrated that Kriging response surface is able to predict the response of finite element model accurately and is convenient to use for finite element model validation.