| 事故仿真再现结果不确定性分析方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 邹铁方,张勇刚. 事故仿真再现结果不确定性分析方法[J]. 振动与冲击, 2013, 32(6): 176-180. DOI: |
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| 作者姓名： | 邹铁方 张勇刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 长沙理工大学 道路灾变防治及交通安全教育部工程研究中心，长沙，4101142. 长沙理工大学 汽车与机械工程学院，长沙，4101143. 广东警官学院 治安系，广州，510230 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(51208065);湖南省自然科学基金(12JJ3044);湖南省高等学校科学研究项目(12C0017);同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室开放基金(201203);公安部应用创新计划项目(2011YYCXGDST077) |
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| 摘 要： | 越来越多的交通事故依赖于仿真软件进行再现分析，事故仿真再现结果的不确定性问题亦越来越受到重视。介绍了可用于研究该问题的上下界法、差分法以及响应曲面法；接着通过分析给出了各方法所需仿真次数；然后借助三个算例验证了各方法的实用性与适用范围，并总结出各方法的优缺点，发现响应曲面法适应性最强；最后探讨了求解事故再现中大不确定性问题的响应曲面法。所得结论可用于指导研究事故仿真再现结果的不确定性问题。
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| 关 键 词： | 事故再现 不确定性分析 上下界法 差分法 响应曲面法 仿真 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011-08-31 |
| 修稿时间： | 2012-03-20 |
Methods for analyzing uncertainty of results in accident simulation |
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| ZOU Tie-fang,ZHANG Yong-gang. Methods for analyzing uncertainty of results in accident simulation[J]. Journal of Vibration and Shock, 2013, 32(6): 176-180. DOI: |
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| Authors: | ZOU Tie-fang ZHANG Yong-gang |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Engineering Research Center of Catastrophic Prophylaxis and Treatment of Road & Traffic Safety，Ministry of Education, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha 410114,China2. School of Automotive and Mechanical Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, China3. Department of Security, Guangdong Police College, Guangzhou, 510230, China |
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| Abstract: | More and more accidents are simulated by accident reconstruction software, so the uncertainty problem of results from accident simulation draws more and more attention. The Upper and lower bound method, Finite difference method and Response surface method, which can be used in evaluating uncertainty of results from accident simulation, are introduced. And then the simulation times needed for each method are analyzed. After that, the feasibility of these methods is proved through three cases, and the strengths and weaknesses of each method are summarized, conclusion that the response surface method is the most adaptive method was obtained. Finally, a method for analyzing the large-scale uncertainty problem in accident reconstruction is proposed. Conclusions obtained in this paper can be used to guide research on evaluating uncertainty of reconstruction results from simulation. |
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| Keywords: | Accident Reconstruction Uncertainty Analysis Upper and Lower Bound Method Finite Difference Method Response Surface Method Simulation |
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