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| 基于汛限水位选择的水库防洪调度风险分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 丁大发,吴泽宁,贺顺德,闫大鹏.基于汛限水位选择的水库防洪调度风险分析[J].水利水电技术,2005,36(3):58-61. |
| 作者姓名： | 丁大发 吴泽宁 贺顺德 闫大鹏 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 河海大学,水利水电工程学院,江苏,南京,210098;黄河勘测规划设计有限公司,河南,郑州,450003 2. 河海大学,水利水电工程学院,江苏,南京,210098;郑州大学环境与水利学院,河南,郑州,450002 3. 黄河勘测规划设计有限公司,河南,郑州,450003 |
| 摘 要： | 以实例为背景，系统分析了水库运行过程中常遇的洪水风险事件、大坝安全风险事件及沓库防洪调度的主要风险因素，提出了水库防洪调度多因素组合风险估计的蒙特卡罗(Monte—Cdo)模拟技术．研究表明，研究建立的水库防洪调度风险模型是合理可行的，适当抬高水库汛限水位增加的系统风险是可以接受的． |
| 关 键 词： | 汛限水位 防洪调度 风险分析 蒙特卡罗模拟 组合风险 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0860(2005)03-0058-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年12月20 |
Risk analysis on reservoir flood control operation based on selection of flood control level |
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| DING Da-fa,WU Ze-ning,HE Shun-de,YAN Da-peng.Risk analysis on reservoir flood control operation based on selection of flood control level[J].Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,2005,36(3):58-61. | |
| Authors: | DING Da-fa WU Ze-ning HE Shun-de YAN Da-peng |
| Affiliation: | DING Da-fa~ |
| Abstract: | Based on the actual case, a systematic analysis is made on the event of flood risk and the event of safety risk frequently occurred during the operation of reservoir, and the main risk factors are studied as well; in which Monte-Carlo simulation for evaluating the combined risk from more risk factors for the flood control of reservoir is introduced. The study shows that the risk evaluation model for reservoir flood control operation developed in the study is reasonable and feasible, and then the systematic risk increased by raising the flood control level properly is acceptable basically. |
| Keywords: | flood control level flood control operation risk analysis Monte-Carlo simulation combined risk |
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