变化环境下塔里木河流域径流序列变化特征及成因分析

以塔里木河流域“四源一干”为研究对象,基于实测水文数据,运用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall非参数检验等方法研究历史水文过程的特征与规律,分析区域气候变化的时空特征,探讨变化环境对水循环及径流变化的过程的影响机理。研究结果表明,由于塔里木河流域特殊的地理位置与流域结构具有河川径流以冰川积雪融水补给为主的特征,随着降水增多以及冰川消融量的增加,近期源流区径流还将保持丰水特征,但由于受到人类活动的影响,长期水资源形势将面临更加严峻的问题。

Analysis on changing characteristics and causation of runoff series of Tarim River Basin under varying environment

By taking the“ one mainstream with four sources” of Tarim River Basin as the study objective, the characteristics and law of the historical hydrological process therein are studied with the methods such as the linear tendency estimate, Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, etc. on the basis of the measured hydrological data; in which the spatial and temporal characteristics of the regional climate change is analyzed, and then the mechanism of the impact from the varying environment on the water cycle and the changing process of the runoff is discussed as well. The study result shows that as the special geographical position of Tarim River Basin and the feature of the basin structure that the river runoff is mainly supplemented by the glacier and snow melt-water, the characteristics of abundant water for the runoff from the relevant source areas is to be recently kept along with the increases of both the precipitation and the amount of the glacier melt-water, however, the situation of water resources for a long period is to be more serious therein due to the impact from the human activities concerned.