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Modelling of black carbon statistical distribution and return periods of extreme concentrations
Affiliation:1. School of Business, Shandong Normal University, Jinan, Shandong, 250358, P.R. China;2. State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, P.R. China;1. Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan, ROC;2. Taiwan GIS Center, 6F-7 Roosevelt Road Sec. 1, Taipei 10092, Taiwan, ROC;3. Department of Civil and Disaster Prevention Engineering, National United University, Miaoli 36003, Taiwan, ROC
Abstract:Eight datasets of 1-h black carbon (BC) concentrations measured in Warsaw agglomeration (Poland), at urban background and sub-urban sites, and in Racibórz, a small town in Upper Silesia district (regional background site) were analyzed to evaluate BC levels, daily profiles and statistical distributions of concentrations in Central-Eastern European region. The observed mean levels ranged from 1483 ng m−3 in suburban site during summer to 3358 ng m−3 in regional background site in winter. Observed diurnal patterns were bimodal in the locations dominated by traffic emissions, but unimodal, with elevated evening peak in individually heated residential area. Three theoretical frequency distributions were applied to fit analyzed datasets separately. The lognormal distribution was the most appropriate to represent the middle-range values, while the high concentrations were satisfactorily predicted by the type I two-parameter exponential distribution which was used to estimate the return periods of extreme concentrations for winter months.
Keywords:Atmospheric aerosol  Black carbon  Statistical modelling  Frequency distribution  Daily profile  Return period  Poland
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