基于贝叶斯网络的公众参与PPP项目决策研究

目前PPP项目决策论证只注重项目的财务分析，探求公共部门与私人投资者的利益合作，忽视了PPP项目另一利益主体——社会公众的需求，从而造成了许多PPP项目最终的社会满意度不高、国民经济评价不佳等问题.本文在研究公众参与PPP项目决策的可行性和有效性的基础上，以贝叶斯网络为手段建立了一个多目标决策模型，辅助公众参与PPP项目规划决策.最后，通过对某商业性PPP项目决策模型的模拟运算，分析了该模型结果的获得过程.

Public Participation in Decision-making of PPP Project Based on Bayesian Network

The decision making process of PPP projects always focuses on the profitability and meeting the interest of government sectors and private investors. The decision maker paid little attention to the requirement and preference of the public users, resulting in low social satisfaction and poor national economic effect. In order to reduce the risk of social stability which always comes from project's low social satisfaction, the feasibility and effectiveness of the public participating in the decision-making of PPP projects are discussed. Then a multi-objective decision making model based on Bayesian theory is established to help the decision maker adopting the method of adding the public factors in the planning stage of PPP project. The simulation process is introduced and the simulation results are analyzed through an assumed commercial project. The results show that the public and investor's satisfaction are both considered in the decision making process of project implement scheme. The decision making system based on Bayesian model offers a quantitative way to assist the decision maker in getting a reasonable result with good public participation.