| 基于自助法的水文频率区间估计 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘攀,郭生练,方彬,郭富强. 基于自助法的水文频率区间估计[J]. 武汉大学学报(工学版), 2007, 40(2): 55-59,64 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘攀 郭生练 方彬 郭富强 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北,武汉,430072 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金;湖北省自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍了采用自助法估计水文频率区间的原理与方法,对经验分位数自助法、纠偏自助法、正态分布近似自助法、学生分布近似自助法等进行了简要的描述,并将纠偏加速自助法引入到水文频率区间估计中.通过统计试验,将自助法与水文频率分析区间估计的常用方法,包括保证修正值系数B方法、Stedinger方法等进行比较研究.试验结果表明:在估计水文频率的上界值时,纠偏加速自助法效率最高,为水文频率区间估计提供了新的思路.
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| 关 键 词： | 频率分析 区间估计 自助法 统计试验 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-8844（2007）02-0055-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-05-18 |
Determination of confidence intervals for frequency analysis by using Bootstrap |
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| LIU Pan,GUO Shenglian,FANG Bin,GUO Fuqiang. Determination of confidence intervals for frequency analysis by using Bootstrap[J]. Engineering Journal of Wuhan University, 2007, 40(2): 55-59,64 |
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| Authors: | LIU Pan GUO Shenglian FANG Bin GUO Fuqiang |
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| Affiliation: | State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper mainly focuses on estimating the confidence intervals for frequency analysis by using Bootstrap. Five different Bootstraps,including the empirical frequency, the test-inversion Bootstrap, the normal distribution Bootstrap, the student distribution Bootstrap and the bias-correction acceleration Bootstrap are used to analyze the confidence intervals. Additionally, three widely used methods are also compared with the above-mentioned Bootstraps. Based upon a Monte Carlo experiment, it is found that the bias-correction acceleration Bootstrap performs best among these confidence intervals estimation models. With the case study on the annual maximum discharges of Hepu reservoir, it is indicated that the Bootstrap is rational in the confidence intervals estimation. |
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| Keywords: | frequency analysis estimation of confidence intervals Bootstrap Monte Carlo experiment |
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