中国城乡居民养殖产品需求演变及趋势分析

在分析改革开放以来中国城乡居民养殖产品消费演变和结构变化基础上,应用扩展线性支出系统模型(ELES)研究了我国城乡居民养殖产品需求趋势。结果表明,农村居民养殖产品消费年增长率快于城镇居民,但由于其消费起点较低,城乡居民养殖产品消费差距并没有缩小;奶及加工品、水产品、禽类在城乡居民养殖产品消费结构中增加幅度明显,而猪肉消费比例有较大的降幅,表明养殖产品消费结构逐步趋于多元化;肉类、禽类、蛋类已经成为我国城乡居民日常生活的必需品,水产品、禽肉加工品成为城乡居民消费新的增长点,但农村居民的奶及其加工品的消费水平较低。

Analysis on Urban and Rural Residents'Aquaculture Products Demand in China

Based on the analysis on the evolution and structural changes of farm products of Chinese urban and rural residents since reform and opening up, the trends of Chinese aquaculture products demand were studied by ELES. The results showed that the annual growth rate of rural residents＇ farm products consumption was faster than the urban residents. However, because of the lower consumption starting points, the consumption gap between them had not been narrowed. The consumption of milk and its products, aquatic products and poultry was inereasied significantly in the urban and rural residents＇ consumption structure. However, the consumption of pork fell greatly. It showed that the residents＇ consumption structure of farm products had been gradually diversified. Meat, poultry and eggs had become urban and rural residents＇ daily necessities. The aquatic products, processed poultry and meat had become a new growth point of the urban and rural residents＇ consumption. However, the processed milk consumption level of rural lesidents was still low.