随机建模在油气储量计算中的应用

提出了采用随机建模技术进行油气储量计算的方法，探讨了随机建模法储量计算的基本原理。利用储量参数的随机网格模型直接进行储量计算，解决了传统容积法计算复杂油藏储量时储量参数难以取准的问题。随机建模计算储量得到的若干储量值为服从某种统计概率分布的蒙特卡洛实现，利用等概率统计法对该结果进行处理得到储量概率分布曲线，并利用该曲线的特征值进行储量评价。实际应用结果表明，采用该方法计算储量客观合理，储量计算结果真实可靠。

Application of Stochastic Modeling to Oil-Gas Reserve Estimation

A method for estimation of oil and gas reserves is proposed with stochastic modeling technique,and its basic principle is discussed. The method can be used to deal with the issues that the reserve parameters are difficult to correctly acquire when estimating complex reservoir's reserves in terms of traditional volume method. The reserve values estimated from this stochastic modeling are Monte-Carlo realizations that obey a certain of statistical probability distribution. A curve of probability distribution of reserves can be got by statistic analysis of the results, and the assessment of reserves can be made from characteristic values on the curve. The real application shows that the reserves estimated by this method are more reasonable and more reliable.