模糊识别理论在设计暴雨典型选择中的应用研究

根据模糊识别理论,从识别的安全性与样本集的整体性考虑,确定能反映暴雨特性的因子指标,采用可能度法计算各指标的权重,构建了设计暴雨推求中典型暴雨选择的模糊识别模型;运用最大优属度原则,对典型暴雨模糊模式进行优选,并与随机法及灰加权法优选的结果进行对比研究。以沙子岭流域为例,进行典型暴雨的模糊识别。实例结果表明:典型暴雨的模糊识别模型给出了选择典型暴雨的定量计算方法,弥补了传统定性选择典型暴雨主观随意性较大的不足。

Research on application of fuzzy recognition theory in the design storm of Typical Selection

According to the fuzzy recognition theory and considering the recogntion and the integrity of the samples, the influence indices reflecting storm characteristics were conffirmed. The method of range number-possibility degree was applied to calculate the weights of the influence indices,and then the fuzzy rcognition model for typical storm in designing storm prediction and calculation was constructed. The principle of the maximum degree of membership was used to select typical storm with the fuzzy mode, and then the result was compared with that of the gray weighted method and the random method. Taking Shaziling Basin as an example, the typical storm was recognized with the fuzzy model. Th living example shows that the fuzzy recognition model of the typical storm provides quantitative calculation method for selectiong typical storm and makes up the shortcoming of the traditional method, which is the relatively great subjective randomness.