北京山区泥石流的单沟预报

为给北京山区单沟泥石流灾害预警预报提供理论依据，基于近十几年北京山区单沟泥石流文献资料，从泥石流灾害形成机理出发，结合目前降雨站点数据，分析诱发泥石流的地形、地质和降雨等相关因素，采用适用于北京山区泥石流预报模型P=RT^0.2/G^0.5 ,得出适用于北京山区单沟泥石流蓝、黄、橙、红Ⅳ级预警模型和相应临界值。研究得出的北京山区泥石流单沟Ⅳ级预警模型能很好地预报短期灾害发生，在龙潭沟等流域的验证中，可以较好地根据降雨的变化情况得出泥石流沟道不同时间段的泥石流易发程度，该模型为该区泥石流易发等级的快速识别提供了科学有效的方法。

Forcast of Single Ditch Debris Flow in Mountainous Areas of Beijing

The aim of this research is to offer theoretical basis for forecasting and warning single-ditch debris flow in the mountainous area of Beijing.Factors such as topography,geology,and rainfall that induce debris flow were analyzed in line with the formation mechanism of debris flow based on literature review in recent decade and rainfall data.The model P=RT^0.2/G^0.5 was adopted for forecasting single-ditch debris flow in the mountainous area of Beijing,and the warning models and corresponding thresholds for blue,yellow,orange and red warning levels were obtained and further applied to forecasting the debris flow in Longtan gully for verification.Results demonstrated that the forecasting model in the present paper could well predict short-term debris flow and acquire the susceptibility of debris flow in different time periods according to rainfall changes.The model can be taken as a scientific and effective method for rapidly identifying the susceptibility level of debris flow in the mountainous area of Beijing.