Investigating the driving factors of regional CO2 emissions in China using the IDA-PDA-MMI method

In this paper, we systematically summarized existing research on the driving factors of CO₂ emissions and found that changes in technology gap may be one of the key driving factors of CO₂ emissions. Technology efficiency, technology progress, and technology gap were decomposed by using the Meta-frontier Malmquist index (MMI), which was then combined it with the Index Decomposition Analysis (IDA) and the Production-theoretical Decomposition Analysis (PDA). Our framework was applied to Chinese provincial data from 2000 to 2016. We identified nine factors to explain changes of regional CO₂ emissions. Results demonstrate that economic scale, energy technology efficiency, and output technology efficiency increased CO₂ emissions in Eastern, Central, and Western regions of China, with the economic scale being the largest contributor. Energy structure, energy intensity, energy technology progress, and output technology progress decreased regional CO₂ emissions, with the energy technology progress playing the strongest role. Energy technology gap and output technology gap led to an increase in CO₂ emissions in Central China and, to a lesser extent, in Western China. The effects of each driving factor on CO₂ emissions varied across provinces. Finally, policy implications are suggested to reduce CO₂ emissions in China.