模糊集分析法在水库汛期分期中的应用

水库汛期划分有利于缓解防洪与兴利之间的矛盾,同时对提高洪水资源利用效率具有重要意义。应用模糊集分析法,基于石佛寺水库和清河水库1956-2000年45 a实际监测数据,对辽河流域石佛寺水库和清河水库的汛期分期问题进行研究,严格依据模糊集合分析法计算程序,首先通过45年的旬径流量资料对水库汛期进行划分,而后根据不同时段平均旬径流量对分期结果进行合理性验证。结果表明:对于石佛寺水库,6月上旬-7月中旬为前汛期,7月下旬-8月下旬为主汛期,9月上旬-9月下旬为后汛期;对于清河水库,6月上旬-7月中旬为前汛期,7月下旬-8月中旬为主汛期,8月下旬-9月下旬为后汛期。基于45年的实测旬径流量资料对其合理性的检验结果,石佛寺水库和清河水库的汛期划分结果是合理可靠的,表明将模糊集分析方法用于辽河流域水库汛期分期研究是可行的。

Application of fuzzy sets analysis method in staging flood season of reservoir

The partition of flood season of reservoir is favorable for mitigating the contradiction between preventing flood and infensifying water project and improving the flood resources utilize efficiency. The paper studied flood season aging of Shifosi Reservoir and Qinghe Reservoir by using the measured data of 45 years from 1956 to 2000 based on the method of fuzzy sets analysis ,and analyzed its rationality by the measured data of 45 years in accordance with computer program of method of fuzzy sets analysis method. The results show that the first ten-day of June to the second ten-day of July is pre-flood season, the third ten-day of July to that of August is main flood season, the first ten-day to the third of September is latter flood season for Shifosi Reservoir; As for Qinghe Reservoir, the first ten-day of June to the second ten-day of July is pre-flood season, the third ten-day of July to the second ten-day of August is main flood season, the third ten-day of August to that of September is latter flood season. Base on the reasonable test result of runoff data of 45 years,the staging result of flood season is feasible for Shifuosi and Qinghe reservoirs,which indicated that application of fuzzy sets analysis method in staging flood season in Liaohe River catchment is feasible.