塔里木河流域降水量的非线性时空变化对比研究及预测

基于塔里木河流域25个气象站1961-2007的实测降水量数据,本文利用Mann-Kendall、R/S分析以及小波分析和周期性叠加趋势模型对塔里木河流域降水量的非线性时空变化特征进行分析,并对未来降水量的变化做出预测。结果表明:1961-2007年之间塔里木河流域降水量整体呈增加趋势,位于塔里木河干流北侧气象站增加趋势要明显强于南侧,其中阿克苏河、迪那河、库车-渭干河和塔里木河干流流域呈极显著增加趋势;在塔里木河干流及阿克苏河源流区出现了增加率的高值中心,最大值在阿合奇,开都-孔雀河的源流区为降水量减少的高值中心,最大减少率在巴音布鲁克;塔里木河干流及子流域的Hurst指数均大于0.5,表明塔里木河流域降水量将保持较鲜明的持续性;相比较1998-2007年,迪那河流域和库车-渭干河流域降水量在2015-2020年的增加值最大。

Comparative Study and prediction of nonlinear temporal and spatial variation of precipitation in Tarim River basin

Based on the precipitation data of 25 weather stations in the Tarim River basin from 1961 to 2007,the paper analyzed the nonlinear temporal and spatial change of precipitation in the basin,and predicated the future change by using Mann-Kendall, R/S analysis and wavelet analysis and periodic superimposed trend model.The result indicated that from 1961 to 2007,precipitation integrally appeared a upward trend in the Tarim River sasin. The precipitation in north of Tarim River basin showed a more significant increase trend than that in south of Tarim River basin.The very obvious increase regions of precipitation colludes Akesu River basin, Dina River basin, Kuche-Weigan River basin and the mainstream of Tarim River basin.And there was a high value center of precipitation increase in the origin area of Akusu River basin and the mainstream of Tarim River basin,the maximum precipitation happened in Aheqi. There is a high value center of precipitation decrease in the origin area of Bayinbuluke.The maximum decrease rate of precipitation took place in Bayinbulu. The Hurst indexs in Tarim River Basin and sub basin are all more than 0.5,which showed that precipitation in the future will keep the obvious upward trend in the Tarim River basin.Compared with data from 1998 to 2007,The maximum increase value of average precipitation will be in Dina River basin of Tarim River basin and Kuche-Weigan River basin during 2015 to 2020.