| 基于风险的乙烯裂解炉炉管失效概率分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王文和,沈士明. 基于风险的乙烯裂解炉炉管失效概率分析[J]. 石油化工高等学校学报, 2007, 20(2): 77-79,96 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王文和 沈士明 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京工业大学机械与动力工程学院,江苏南京,210009
2. 南京工业大学机械与动力工程学院,江苏南京,210009;中国石油化工股份有限公司工程风险分析技术研究中心,江苏南京,210009 |
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| 摘 要： | 乙烯裂解炉炉管是裂解炉的关键部件,它的失效会带来火灾爆炸等严重后果。根据蒙特卡罗方法和美国石油学会的API581中的风险分析理论,对某石化公司的乙烯裂解炉炉管的失效概率进行了定量分析和计算。通过两种方法的结果比较看出,应用蒙特卡罗方法分析计算在蠕变和渗碳的相互作用下炉管的失效概率随着运行时间增加而不断增加;而应用API581中基于风险检验方法计算炉管在蠕变失效下的年失效概率,由于未考虑渗碳失效,所得到的失效概率相对于利用蒙特卡罗方法计算的失效概率要低。
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| 关 键 词： | 乙烯裂解炉 炉管 失效概率 风险 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-396X(2007)02-0077-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-12-11 |
The Failure Probability Analysis of Ethylene Cracking Furnace Tube Based on Risk |
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| WANG Wen-he,SHEN Shi-ming. The Failure Probability Analysis of Ethylene Cracking Furnace Tube Based on Risk[J]. Journal of Petrochemical Universities, 2007, 20(2): 77-79,96 |
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| Authors: | WANG Wen-he SHEN Shi-ming |
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| Abstract: | The ethylene cracking furnace tube is the key component of the cracking furnace;its failure will bring serious consequences such as the fire explosion etc.According to methods of Monte Carlo and risk analysis theory of API581 of American petroleum institute,it was provides qualitative and quantitatively analysis failure probability of the ethylene cracking furnace tubes for a petrochemical corporation,and obtains the failure probability of this furnace tube.Some results can be seen by the two methods,the failure probability calculated by Monte Carlo method increased with the increase of the runtime of furnace tube under creep and carburization;while the failure probability calculated by API581 only considering creep is lower than that computed by Monte Carlo method. |
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| Keywords: | Ethylene cracking furnace Tube Failure probability Risk |
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