多种负荷预测曲线的优化综合方法

目前已有多种负荷预测方法,但是仅使用一种负荷预测方法预测负荷存在预测精度高低的问题。此外,每种预测方法互相独立,彼此没有兼容性。通过证据理论对特定时段特定负荷预测方法得出的预测值进行精度的Dempster合成,然后对于待测负荷点的由n种负荷预测方法获得的预测值进行精度择优,保证在任一时段都采用目前时段预测精度较高的预测方法,使得综合后的负荷预测曲线总体预测精度提高。算例表明:综合后的日负荷预测曲线,整体预测精度得到了改善。

Optimal Synthesis Manifold Load Prediction Curve

There are many methods of load forecasting,but the precision of predicted value is often unsteady only with a method of load forecasting.Otherwise,the methods of load forecasting are incompatible.In the paper,a way of evidential theory to synthesize the precision of predicted values of given point which are gained by a special prediction way is presented,and among the predicted values through multi-methods of load forecasting,the best one is selected according to the precision.Thus,the best method can be adopted at any time.The practical results indicate that the whole precision of predicted value is enhanced.