分位数回归和GAMLSS模型在非一致性洪水频率分析中的比较

为了探索分位数回归模型在非一致性频率分析中的适用性,分别采用分位数回归模型和GAMLSS模型对渭河流域以及珠江流域5个站点的年最大洪水序列进行非一致性频率分析。模型概率覆盖率定性分析结果显示,分位数回归模型拟合效果优于GAMLSS模型;Filliben相关系数定量分析结果显示,GAMLSS模型拟合效果更好但优势不明显。综合分析可得,分位数回归模型的拟合优度整体优于GAMLSS模型。

Comparison of quantile regression and GAMLSS model in non-stationary flood frequency analysis

In order to explore the applicability of the quantile regression model in non-stationary frequency analysis, the quantile regression model and the GAMLSS model were used to analyze the non-stationary frequency of the annual maximum flood series at five stations in the Weihe River Basin and the Pearl River Basin. Qualitative analysis of the probability coverage shows that the goodness of the fitting effect for the quantile regression model is better than that of the GAMLSS model. Quantitative analysis of the Filliben correlation coefficient shows that the GAMLSS model has a better fitting effect but the advantages are not obvious. Comprehensive analysis shows that the overall fitting goodness of the quantile regression model is better than the GAMLSS model.