我国炼焦煤中长期供需预测研究

研究了我国炼焦煤供需现状、产量变化和煤种结构,对主要炼焦煤生产省区的炼焦煤开发潜力进行了分析,分析了供给侧结构性改革对炼焦煤供应的影响,综合考虑各省区炼焦煤资源储量、产量变化和剩余服务年限等各种影响因素,对中长期我国炼焦煤供应量进行了预测,采用GDP钢材消费系数法对中长期我国粗钢和生铁需求量进行了预测,基于钢铁消费需求对中长期我国炼焦煤需求量进行了预测。经预测分析,我国中长期炼焦煤供应量和需求量均将呈明显下降趋势;从分煤种上看,中长期国内焦煤和肥煤供需缺口较大,急需加强国内炼焦煤资源的保护性开采和利用。

Research on Forecast of Supply and Demand of Coking Coal in Medium and Long Term in China

Coking coal is one of the important raw materials of iron and steel industry, which guarantees the development of China's iron and steel industry. Research on coking coal supply and demand has important guiding significance for the development of China's iron and steel industry. This paper studies the present situation of coking coal supply and demand, the output change and the structure of coal types in China, analyses the development potential of coking coal in major coking coal producing provinces, analyses the influence of structural reform on coking coal supply on supply side, and comprehensively considers various factors such as coking coal resource reserves, output changes and remaining service life in each province and region, the medium and long term supply of coking coal in China is forecasted. The demand of crude steel and pig iron in medium and long term is forecasted by steel consumption coefficient method of GDP, and the demand of coking coal in medium and long term is forecasted based on steel consumption demand. According to the forecast and analysis, the supply and demand of coking coal in the medium and long term in China will show a marked downward trend; from the point of view of coal classification, the supply and demand gap of coking coal and fertilizer coal in the medium and long term in China is large, and it is urgent to strengthen the protective exploitation and utilization of domestic coking coal resources.