交通运输业能耗现状及未来走势分析

低碳经济要求交通运输有效、合理地使用能源,优化配置各种交通工具,降低能耗。近年来,我国交通运输业能耗增长率总体上高于全社会能耗增长率,占全社会能耗比重基本维持在7.5%左右。各种运输方式的能耗主要集中在油耗上,2007年交通运输业汽煤柴3种油耗叠加在一起,占全社会油耗比重近70%。交通运输中电能利用效率较高,节电效果好于全社会,电耗占全社会电耗比重从2002年的2.07%降至2007年的1.63%,但占全国交通运输能耗比重仅10%左右,能耗结构不合理现象并未得到改善。2008年国家铁路单位运输工作量综合能耗比上年降低3.1%,2009年我国铁路电气化率达到41.9%,铁路能耗结构出现根本性改善和优化,开始转变为以电耗为主。公路运输油耗总量呈快速增长趋势,百吨公里油耗指标呈稳中略升态势,节能空间和潜能较大。水运(含港口)能耗2004年之前呈上升趋势,之后下降趋势明显,约占交通运输业总能耗的15%。民航每吨公里油耗从2002年的0.364kg降至2007年的0.309kg,航油消耗增长率基本维持在12%上下,有较为明显的减弱趋势。未来10年,我国交通运输能源消耗总量将进一步攀升,虽然能耗结构将得到一定程度优化,电耗比重会迅速增长,但由于公路能耗在交通运输能耗中占有绝对比重,故难以从根本上改善交通运输以油耗为主的结构特点。我国交通运输业应逐步调整到以铁路为主导的各种交通方式协调发展的模式上来,最大限度地降低运输业油耗在整个交通运输行业中的比重,"以电代油"。

Present Situation and Trend of Energy Consumption in Traffic and Transportation Industry

Low-carbon economy requires that the traffic and transportation sector should reasonably and efficiently use energy,and optimize the allocation of all sorts of transportation tools to lower energy consumption.In recent years,on the whole the growth of energy consumption of China＇ s transportation sector has been faster than that of the country＇s national energy consumption.The transportation sector has represented about 7.5% of the country＇ s total energy consumption.The main fuel used by the transportation sector is oil.In 2007,the traffic and transportation sector＇ s consumption of gasoline,kerosene and diesel fuel accounted for nearly 70% of the country＇s total oil consumption.The traffic and transportation sector＇s electric power utilization efficiency is relatively high and its electric power saving efficiency is higher than the national level.The sector＇s share of electricity consumption in the country＇s total electricity consumption dropped to 1.63% in 2007 from 2.07% in 2002.However,electricity represents only about 10% of all energy used in the traffic and transportation sector,meaning that the irrational energy mix still needs to be improved.In 2008,the overall energy consumption of the railway sector dropped by 3.1% over the previous year.By 2009,41.9% of Chinese railways had been electrified and Chinese railways＇ energy efficiency has improved fundamentally.Electricity is now the main source of energy used by Chinese railways.The oil consumption of the road transport sector is growing rapidly.The sector＇s oil consumption for carrying 100 tons of goods over one kilometer is rising slightly,indicating a large room and potential for saving energy.The water-borne transport sector＇ s（including port traffic） energy consumption kept rising before 2004 and then went down considerably.This sector now represents 15% of the domestic traffic and transportation sector＇s total energy consumption.The civil aviation sector＇ s oil consumption for carrying one ton of goods over one kilometer dropped to 0.309kg in 2007 from 0.364kg in 2002 and jet fuel consumption increased at an annual rate of about 12%（this growth was considerably slower than before）.Over the next 10 years,energy consumption in the domestic traffic and transportation sector will continue to grow.Although the sector＇s energy mix will improve to some extent with the share of electricity to grow rapidly,since road transport accounts for a predominant share of the energy consumption by the traffic and transportation sector,it is difficult to substantially change the sector＇s energy mix predominated by oil.China＇s traffic and transportation sector should gradually adopt a development mode in which railways predominate and all means of transportation grow in a harmonious way to minimize the share of oil in the traffic and transportation sector＇s energy demand by introducing electricity as an alternative.