在用井架的寿命估计

用应力—强度干涉理论对井架结构进行可靠性分析，分析中的诸变量作为随机变量来考虑。在上述基础上，将随机变量更逼真地描述成随机过程，建立应力—强度—时间模型，与在用井架的寿命估计，即井架能继续工作的时间联系起来。分析影响井架使用寿命的基本随机变量和随机过程，由负载时间和承载数值的不确定性，导出井架响应的随机过程服从Ｐｏｓｓｉｏｎ分布规律。研究了在随机—无关或随机—确定状态下，符合井架实际工况的随机变量的两种组合，得到可信度较高的在用井架使用寿命估计值。

Estimation of Service Life of Derricks on the Job

The authors analyze the reliability of the structure of drilling derricks by the stress-strength interference theory, taking the variables analyzed as random variables, describe then, for higher destinctness, the random variables as random process, set up a stress-strength-time model, relating it with the estimation of the succeeding service life of the derrick on the job. Then the authors analyze the basic random variables and random process influencing the derrick life and reveal that the relevant random process is subjected to the Possion distribution pattern. Finally the authors study into two sets of random variable combination, conforming to the actual working conditions of the derrick and providing trustworthy prediction of the derrick life.