浅水水下采油树风险评估方法适应性分析

调研水下采油树国内外可靠性分析的研究现状，指出可靠性分析中存在的不足之处。详细介绍几种典型的风险评估方法并对浅水水下采油树的适应性进行分析。针对渤海浅水水下采油树建立事故树分析模型，得出关键结构重要度排序，根据分析结果，结合实际渤海油气田特点，对油管悬挂器、采油树保护装置和生产阀组在设计方面提出一些实际工程建议，为形成一套适用于浅水油气田的水下采油树风险评估和可靠性分析体系提供理论基础，同时也对我国浅水水下采油树进行自主研发、优化设计和安全运行提供重要参考。

Adaptability Analysis of Risk Assessment Method of Shallow-Water Subsea Tree

The shortcomings of the reliability analysis are pointed out by investigating the current situation of reliability analysis of subsea tree at home and abroad. Several typical risk assessment methods are introduced and the applicability of the methods to the shallow-water subsea tree is analyzed. Aimed at Bohai shallow-water subsea tree system, the fault tree analysis model is established, and the importance ranking of the key structure is obtained. According to the analysis result and combined with the actual characteristics of the oil and gas fields in Bohai Sea, some practical engineering suggestions on the design of tubing hanger, subsea tree protection device and production valve group are put forward, to provide the theoretical basis for forming a set of underwater subsea tree risk assessment and reliability analysis system suitable for shallow-water oil and gas fields and also provide important reference for the independent research and development, optimized design and safe operation of the subsea tree in shallow-water in China.