基于偏联系数的地下水开采强度动态评价研究

为减少人类活动对地下水环境的影响，实现地下水资源可持续利用，需从时空尺度上对地下水开采强度进行动态评价。基于集对分析构建了地下水开采强度时空动态评价模型，并基于二阶偏联系数挖掘了同一度、差异度、对立度的动态演化过程，识别了影响地下水开采强度等级的主要因素。结果表明：2006-2016年，北京市大兴区地下水开采强度趋于增大，空间分布上中部地区>南部地区>北部地区；人口数、工业产值、第三产业产值对地下水开采强度等级影响的时空分布特征为北部地区>中部地区>南部地区。农业种植面积、机井数对地下水开采强度等级影响的时空分布特征为南部地区>中部地区>北部地区。依据二阶偏联系数识别结果，人口数、工业产值、第三产业产值对地下水开采强度的影响程度在增强，农业种植面积、机井数对地下水开采强度的影响程度在减弱。本文构建的地下水开采强度时空动态评价模型能够较好地反映研究区的地下水开采强度等级及动态演化过程，且计算简便，有一定的应用推广价值。

Dynamic evaluation of groundwater exploitation intensity based on partial connection number

In order to reduce the impact of human activities on groundwater and realize the sustainable utilization of groundwater resources, it is necessary to dynamically evaluate the groundwater exploitation intensity from spatial and temporal perspectives. Based on set pair analysis, a spatiotemporal dynamic evaluation model was established, and the dynamic evolution process of the degree of identity, degree of discrepancy and degree of contrary was discussed based on the second order partial connection number, by which the main factors affecting the exploitation intensity were identified. The results show that the groundwater exploitation intensity in Daxing District kept increasing from 2006 to 2016, and central region > southern region > northern region on the spatial distribution. The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the intensity level influenced by the population, industrial output value and tertiary industry output value were ranked as follows: northern region > central region > southern region, and that by the agricultural planting area and number of wells were southern region > central region > northern region. According to the identification results of the second order partial connection number, the influence of the population, industrial output value and tertiary industry output value were improving, but that of the agricultural planting area and number of wells were weakening. The spatiotemporal dynamic evaluation model constructed in this paper can accurately reflect the groundwater exploitation intensity level and its dynamic evolution process in the study area, and the calculation is simple, so it is worth popularizing.