考虑非一致性条件的淮河干流洪水分析

环境的变化和不确定性导致水文序列表现出非平稳特征,基于一致性条件的洪水风险分析忽略了气候变化和人类活动等因素的影响,会低估洪水风险.研究采用GAMLSS模型作为边际分布模型,以降水作为协变量,对淮河干流部分重要水文站点的年最大1 d流量和年最大15 d洪量序列进行非一致性频率分析,探究非一致性条件下洪峰和洪量设计值的变...

Flood analysis of the main stream of Huaihe River under inconsistent condition

The change and uncertainty of environment lead to the non-stationary characteristics of hydrological series. Flood risk analysis based on consistent condition ignores the influence of climate change and human activities, and may results in the underestimation of flood risks. Here, GAMLSS model was used as the marginal distribution model and rainfall as the covariate to analyze the inconsistent frequency of the annual maximum 1-day flow and the annual maximum 15-day flood series of some hydrological stations in the main stream of Huaihe River, in order to explore the variation of flood peak and the design value of flood volume under inconsistent conditions. The results show that the designed marginal distribution values of flood peak and flood volume based on consistent condition are lower than those under inconsistent condition in the year of large flood event. Then, the joint distribution model of flood peak and flood volume was constructed under these two conditions using Copula function, which was used to analyze the co-occurrence probability of every hydrological station in the main stream of Huaihe River with a return period of 50 years. It is found that the co-occurrence probability under the consistent condition in the year of large flood event is prone to the lapse of flood risk with high peak and large volume.