| 基于精炼贝叶斯均衡的电网动态应急管理 |
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| 引用本文： | 田廓,曾鸣,王晶晶,张怡,卢键明. 基于精炼贝叶斯均衡的电网动态应急管理[J]. 华东电力, 2009, 37(1) |
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| 作者姓名： | 田廓 曾鸣 王晶晶 张怡 卢键明 |
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| 作者单位： | 华北电力大学,工商管理学院,北京,102206;华北电力大学,工商管理学院,北京,102206;华北电力大学,工商管理学院,北京,102206;华北电力大学,工商管理学院,北京,102206;华北电力大学,工商管理学院,北京,102206 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于对电网应急管理典型环节的分析,定义了电网事故与电网管理者的博弈关系,并对其博弈特征进行研究.按照标准博弈语言描述了电网事故与电网管理者之间的博弈要素,构建了以决策者期望效用最大化为目标的期望效用函数,根据贝叶斯法则解得电网动态应急管理方案决策的精炼贝叶斯均衡解,由此提出了电网应急管理的动态决策框架,通过电网事故信息与管理决策之间的反复博弈,修正应急预案,直至事故得到控制.通过算例说明了电网应急管理决策模型的可行性与有效性.
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| 关 键 词： | 应急管理 电网安全 动态博弈 精炼贝叶斯均衡 |
Grid dynamic emergency management based on perfect Bayesian equilibrium |
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| TIAN Kuo,ZENG Ming,WANG Jing-jing,ZHANG Yi,LIU Jian-ming. Grid dynamic emergency management based on perfect Bayesian equilibrium[J]. East China Electric Power, 2009, 37(1) |
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| Authors: | TIAN Kuo ZENG Ming WANG Jing-jing ZHANG Yi LIU Jian-ming |
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| Affiliation: | School of Business Administration;North China Electric Power Univ.;Beijing 102206;China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the analysis of the typical links of grid emergency management,the game relationship between the grid accident and the grid governor was defined,and the game characteristics were studied.The game factors between the grid accident and the grid governor were described with standard game language,and the expected utility function was constructed aiming at maximizing the expected utility of the decision-maker.The perfect Bayesian equilibrium solution to decision-making of the grid dynamic emergency man... |
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| Keywords: | emergency management grid security dynamic game perfect Bayesian equilibrium |
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