配电网重复多发性停电风险辨识方法

该文提出了一种针对配电网重复多发性停电的风险辨识方法。首先，界定了配电网重复多发性停电的频率，提出基于停电发生概率和停电严重程度的重复多发性停电风险预警指标。为准确刻画已发生停电次数对重复多发性停电预警指标的影响，提出重复多发性停电影响因子，用于修正预警指标。分别采用装备水平、运维水平和网架结构水平指标刻画重复多发性停电发生概率，采用停电负荷重要程度、历史停电投诉信息、停电影响用户数指标刻画重复多发性停电损失严重程度，基于层次分析法（analytic hierarchy process，AHP）和熵权法确定各影响指标的主、客观权重，最终实现配电网重复多发性停电的风险预警评估。根据量化评估结果，即可辨识出重复多发性停电风险较大的线路。以某省电力公司3条10 kV线路为例进行了算例分析，算例结果表明，所提指标和方法能够有效评估配电线路重复多发性停电风险，并辨识出风险较高的线路。

Risk Evaluation of Repeated Multiple Power Outages in the Distribution Network

This paper presents a risk identification method for repeated multiple power outages in distribution networks. First, the frequency of repeated multiple power outages in distribution networks is defined, and a risk early-warning index of repeated multiple power outages is proposed on the basis of the occurrence probability and the severity of outages. To accurately depict the impact of number of outages on the risk-warning index, a repeated power outage influencing factor is proposed for index correction. The probability of power outage is depicted by indices of equipment level, operation and maintenance level and grid structure level respectively, and the severity of power outage is depicted by the importance of outage load, complaints information of historical outages and the number of users affected by the power outage. Then, on the basis of analytic hierarchy process （AHP） and entropy method, risk-warning evaluation of repeated multiple power outages in the distribution network is carried out. Finally, according to the quantitative results of evaluation, lines with greater risk of repeated multiple power outages are identified. The analysis of three 10 kV lines of State Grid Henan Electric Power Company is taken as an example. The example shows that the proposed indices and methods can effectively evaluate the risk of repeated multiple power outages in distribution lines and identify the lines with higher risk.