京津冀地区产业结构演进特征分析

区域产业结构演进与经济增长关系密切,在京津冀协同发展的背景下,研究三地的产业结构演进特征具有重要的现实意义。采用三角形图表法描述1978-2016年京津冀地区产业结构演进的总体趋势,得到京津冀地区产业结构高级化、空间发展差异化的特征;通过计算相关指标,对京津冀地区产业结构均衡性、产业结构趋同性、产业结构与就业结构的协调性、产业结构转换速度及转换方向进行了比较和评价;选取1978-1985年、1986-1995年、1996-2005年及2006-2016年四个时段,基于偏离-份额分析法对京津冀地区的产业结构演进过程进行了分析;最后提出产业结构演进机理,包括:资源禀赋与发展定位、体制失衡与政策管控、行政分割与市场壁垒。

Analysis on characteristics of industrial structure evolution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

The evolution of reg ional industrial structure is closely r elated to economic g rowth. Under the backg ro und o f coo rdina2 ted dev elo pment of Beijing , T ianjin and Hebei, it is of g reat practical sig nificance to study the characteristics of industrial struc2 tur e ev olution in this reg ion. Using ter nar y plot to describe the general t rend of industrial structure evolut ion in the Beijing2 Tianjin2H ebei reg ion from 1978 to 2016, w e found t he industrial structure in t he reg io n is upg rading and its dev elopment differs spatially. We compa red and evaluated the equilibrium o f industrial structure, the conver gence o f industria l structure, the coo rdi2 natio n betw een industrial str uctur e and employment str ucture, the speed and direction o f industrial structure conversion by cal2 culating relevant indicat ors. Based o n the Shift2Shar e M etho d, we selected fo ur periods of 197821985, 198621995, 199622005, and 200622016 to analyze t he pro cess o f industrial structure evo lutio n in Beijing2T ianjin2Hebei Reg io n. Finally , w e proposed the mechanism of indust rial st ruct ur e ev olution, including : r eso ur ce endowments and development o rientatio n, inst itutional imbal2 ance and po licy management , administrative division and market barriers.