基于灰关联分析的物流与对外贸易关系的实证分析

为探析物流与对外贸易的关联性,对2001—2019年我国物流与外贸及内贸的年度数据进行了灰关联实证分析,结果显示:①沿海规模以上港口主要货物吞吐量、总货运周转量以及航空、水路、公路、管道货运周转量与外贸及内贸指标的灰关联值都处于0.65～0.85区间,表明上述指标对外贸及内贸的胁迫作用强度较高; 铁路货运周转量与外贸及内贸指标的灰关联值处于0.35～0.65区间,表明上述指标对外贸及内贸的胁迫作用强度中等; ②外贸及内贸指标对物流的耦合作用强度都较高; ③航空货运在所有的运输方式中对外贸的胁迫作用最强; ④外贸比内贸更容易受物流的影响,其中进口较容易受国内物流影响,而出口则较容易受国际物流影响.上述结果可为相关政府部门制定外贸和物流规划提供良好参考.

Empirical analysis of the relationship between logistics and foreign trade base on GRA

To analyze the correlation between logistics and foreign trade, this paper has conducted an empirical analysis of logistics and foreign trade as well as domestic trade based on the data from 2001 to 2019, and the results show that:(1)The gray correlation value between the main cargo throughput of the main coastal ports, total volume of cargo turnover and the total volume of cargo turnover from air, waterway, highway and pipeline and the indicators from foreign trade and domestic trade ranges from 0.65 to 0.85, indicating that the above indicators have a high degree of stress on foreign and domestic trade, however, the gray correlation value between railway freight turnover and the indicators from foreign trade and domestic trade ranges from 0.35 to 0.65, which shows that the stress intensity of railway freight on foreign trade and domestic trade is at a medium level;(2)The coupling strength of foreign trade and domestic trade indicators on logistics is high;(3)Among all modes of transportation, air cargo transport has the highest duress effect on foreign trade;(4)Foreign trade is more vulnerable to logistics than domestic trade, in which imports are more vulnerable to domestic logistics and exports are more vulnerable to international logistics. The above results can provide a good reference for relevant government departments to formulate foreign trade and logistics planning.