盆地模拟技术的发展现状与未来展望

在系统介绍盆地模拟系统的国内外发展简史基础上,分析了盆地模拟地质模型和数学模型的发展现状,尤其分析了油气成藏动力学“五史”模型的发展现状,提出盆地模拟技术有待解决的5个难题:(1)盆地动力学模型与油气成藏动力学模型的有机统一;(2)三维地质体动态平衡模型及相应的数学模型建立;(3)盆地古水动力学过程的准确模拟;(4)成藏动力学各模型的全三维化;(5)可变网格的偏微分方程组求解。认为盆地模拟技术未来十年的发展趋势是:(1)基于盆地动力学演化的全三维油气盆地动态模拟系统得以建立并逐渐完善;(2)由大型勘探数据库支持的盆地动态模拟系统成为油气勘探和资源预测的得力工具;(3)成油气系统模拟成为盆地模拟的重要内容和发展形式;(4)“交互模拟”、“人工干预界面”和“综合评价”技术获得长足发展。 

PRESENT DEVELOPING SITUATION AND FUTURE PROSPECTS OF BASIN SIMULATION TECHNOLOGY

In this paper,the brief development history of basin simulation systems at home and abroad is introduced systematically.On this basis,the present developing situation of both geological and mathematical models for basin simulation is analyzed,especially that of geohistory,thermal history,hydrocarbon generation history,hydrocarbon expulsion history and hydrocarbon mingration and accumulation history "five histories" models for hydrocarbon accumulation dynamics.It is suggested that five difficult problems remain to be solved about basin simulation technology,that is,the organic unity of basin dynamic models and hydrocarbon accumulation dynamic models,the setablishment of dynamic balance models and corresponding mathematical models for 3 D geologic bodies,the correct modeling of the paleohydrodynamic process of basins,the full three dimensionation of each models for hydrocarbon accumulation dynamics and the solution of partial differential equations for variable meshes.It is considered that the developing trends of basin simulation technology in the next decade are as follows: 1) the full 3 D hydrocarbon basin dynamic simulation system based on basin dynamic evolution will be ste up and perfected gradually; 2) the basin dynamic simulation system supported by large scale exploration data bases will become powerful tols for hydrocarbon exploration and resource prediction; 3) the hydrocarbon generation system simulation will be the important content and developing style of basin simulation; and 4) "interactive simulation","artificial interfering interface" and "synthetic evaluation" technologies will make rapid progress.