| 基于时间序列模型的风电场风速预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨锡运,孙翰墨. 基于时间序列模型的风电场风速预测研究[J]. 动力工程, 2011, 31(3) |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨锡运 孙翰墨 |
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| 作者单位： | 华北电力大学控制与计算机工程学院,北京,102206 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(61074094); 教育部重点基金资助项目(109045); 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(09QG30,10MG28) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于时间序列的方法,对风速的长期预测进行了研究,并在工程应用的基础上提出了新的预测思路:首先将风速信号分解成趋势信号和去趋势项随机信号,然后分别用滑动滤波和小波分析这2种方法对分解出的去趋势项随机信号进行数据处理并比较,再用时间序列的方法对趋势项信号和处理后的信号分别进行预测并叠加,得到最后的预测风速信号.结果表明:五项滑动滤波处理数据的方法与Daubechies小波分解法均能实现精度较高的风速长期预测;与小波分解法相比,滑动滤波方法算法的复杂性低,在工程应用上可行性更高.
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| 关 键 词： | 风电场 风速预测 时间序列 ARMA模型 滑动滤波 小波分析 |
Wind Speed Prediction in Wind Farms Based on Time Series Model |
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| YANG Xi-yun , SUN Han-mo. Wind Speed Prediction in Wind Farms Based on Time Series Model[J]. Power Engineering, 2011, 31(3) |
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| Authors: | YANG Xi-yun SUN Han-mo |
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| Affiliation: | YANG Xi-yun,SUN Han-mo(School of Control and Computer Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on study of long-term wind speed prediction using time series model,a new prediction scheme is proposed for engineering applications,in which the wind speed signal is first decomposed into trend signal and no-trend random signal,then the latter on is processed and compared respectively using sliding filter method and wavelet analysis method,and finally both the trend signal and previously processed signal are separately predicted and superposed so as to forecast the wind speed.Results show that both t... |
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| Keywords: | wind farm wind speed prediction time series ARMA model sliding filter wavelet analysis |
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